Will Walter Clayton Jr.’s remarkable Steph Curry-esque performances propel the Gators to a third national title? Or will the Cougars’ fierce defense clinch Houston’s first championship?
By Bryan Armen Graham and Nicholas Levine in San Antonio
Mon 7 Apr 2025 10:00 BST
What Florida Needs to Do to Win
For the Gators, the key to victory lies in pushing the pace and transforming the game into a high-possession battle, disrupting Houston’s grind-it-out style. They must hit perimeter shots early to stretch the Cougars’ vaunted defense, which is regarded as the best in the nation by any metric. Florida must also minimize turnovers against Houston’s ball pressure, control the rebounding battle, and win second-chance points. Maintaining composure in late-game moments against Houston’s physicality will be essential.
– Bryan Armen Graham
Florida must get strong playmaking and scoring from its perimeter players while limiting Houston’s opportunities to capitalize on offensive rebounds. Houston grabbed 18 offensive boards in its win over Duke, which led to 19 points. If Florida can force Houston into tough twos and secure the rebound edge, they could cut down the nets on Monday night.
– Nicholas Levine
What Houston Needs to Do to Win
Of the 364 teams in Division I, only four play slower than the Cougars. Houston needs to control the tempo, stifling Florida’s guards with pressure while dominating the glass. By limiting second-chance opportunities and forcing turnovers, they can force the Gators into a half-court battle—precisely where they excel. Houston’s suffocating defense allowed them to limit Duke to just one field goal in the last 10 minutes of their semifinal, a pivotal moment in one of the Final Four’s most remarkable performances.
– Bryan Armen Graham
Houston must stick to its defensive identity and toughness. The Cougars are the nation’s best defensive team, allowing opponents only 87.3 points per 100 possessions. Their defense will be key in containing Florida’s explosive backcourt. Look for Houston to deploy ball-screen traps on Gators’ star Walter Clayton Jr., forcing other players to step up offensively.
– Nicholas Levine
Key Player for Florida
Walter Clayton Jr.
The 6’3″ combo guard has been the emotional and offensive core of the Gators, earning comparisons to Steph Curry after back-to-back 30-point performances against Texas Tech and Auburn. His shot creation, calm under pressure, and clutch play will be tested by Houston’s long backcourt.
– Bryan Armen Graham
Clayton has been red-hot, with the last player to score consecutive 30-point games in both the Elite Eight and Final Four being Larry Bird in 1979. The Gators will rely on the former high school football star—who turned down offers from Georgia and Notre Dame to play basketball at Iona—to keep his scoring streak alive.
– Nicholas Levine
Key Player for Houston
J’Wan Roberts
The 6’8″ forward is the anchor of Houston’s stellar defense, bringing toughness, versatility, and experience. A former redshirt turned key starter, Roberts excels at defending both in the paint and on the perimeter, and is relentless on the boards. Against Florida, his ability to defend without fouling and contribute offensively will be pivotal for the Cougars’ title hopes.
– Bryan Armen Graham
LJ Cryer
Cryer played the full 40 minutes in Houston’s win over Duke, hitting timely threes to keep the Cougars in the game. Florida’s defense will likely make points in the paint hard to come by, so Cryer’s perimeter shooting will be crucial in opening the offense for Houston’s other playmakers.
– Nicholas Levine
One Bold Prediction
Alex Condon will be the X-factor.
The 6’11” freshman from Perth may not always grab the headlines, but his size, mobility, and strong instincts could be a game-changer against Houston’s physical frontcourt. Expect Condon to contribute with key rebounds, defensive switches, and some hustle plays that could shift momentum in Florida’s favor.
– Bryan Armen Graham
The battle on the boards will be critical. Both teams rank among the top eight in offensive rebounding, each recovering about 36% of their missed shots. With open looks likely to be rare, second-chance points will make the difference.
– Nicholas Levine
Which Team is Most Likely to Return Next Year?
Houston.
Houston’s program, built on defense and toughness under Kelvin Sampson, is primed for continued March success. Despite player departures, the Cougars reload quickly and have reached the second weekend of the tournament every year for the last six seasons. Houston’s style frustrates opponents, and Sampson’s system continues to produce consistent results year after year. They’re a likely Final Four contender again next year.
– Bryan Armen Graham
With the unpredictable nature of the transfer portal, predicting next year’s teams is tricky, but Houston’s defensive culture and consistent success make them a safe bet. Florida’s coach, Todd Golden, focuses on analytics and building a roster based on data-driven decisions. However, Houston’s style of tough defense and relentless physicality gives them the edge for sustained success.
– Nicholas Levine
One Player I Would Have Liked to See in the Final
Olivier Rioux, Florida.
The 7’9″ freshman, a Guinness-certified world’s tallest teenager, is redshirting this season to improve his conditioning but is present with the Gators in San Antonio. His presence has drawn attention, and he’s become a fan favorite, especially after Florida’s win over Texas Tech when he cut down a piece of the net without needing a ladder.
– Bryan Armen Graham
Cooper Flagg, Duke.
Flagg, a surefire No. 1 pick in June’s NBA draft, won’t be seen in the Final Four after Duke’s tough loss. Known for his all-around impact on the game, Flagg’s absence is unfortunate, as he was a fan favorite for his high-flying plays and leadership.
– Nicholas Levine
What Does This Year’s Tournament Say About the State of the Transfer Portal?
The transfer portal has transformed college basketball, making it a more fluid and unpredictable year-to-year competition. Teams like Florida, powered by key transfers, have shown the immense impact that experienced newcomers can have. The gap between rebuilding and contending is razor-thin, and rosters are now built in a matter of months instead of years.
– Bryan Armen Graham
The rise of the transfer portal has created an era of parity, where top players move between schools, and traditional powers like Duke and Kansas adapt to this new landscape. It has also allowed programs like Auburn to thrive by adding older, experienced players. The lesson? Teams that find the right mix of complementary talent and players who fit the coach’s system will succeed.
– Nicholas Levine
The Final Score Will Be…
Florida 78-74 Houston.
In this high-stakes clash of styles, the Gators’ perimeter shooting wins out. Clayton’s offensive brilliance shines through, and Florida survives Houston’s late surge with clutch free throws and a game-changing blocked shot in the final minute. The Gators’ speed and skill ultimately overpower the Cougars’ grit and defense in a thrilling Alamodome showdown.
– Bryan Armen Graham
Florida 71-63 Houston.
Florida, an underdog picked sixth in the SEC’s preseason poll, has defied expectations all season. The Gators will stifle Houston’s offense by forcing tough twos, an area where the Cougars have struggled. With both teams playing disciplined basketball, Florida’s shooting and rebounding edge will carry them to their first title since back-to-back championships under Billy Donovan.
– Nicholas Levine
